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Tạp chí quốc tế 2024
Số tạp chí 17(2024) Trang: 1-14
Tạp chí: Journal of Risk and Financial Management

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is a key driver of economic development of both developed and developing countries. Understanding and insights into the factors that motivate increased FDI is very important for both academics and policy makers. A key factor multinationals incorporate in their decisions on FDI is the Geopolitical Risk (GPR). Therefore, this study devotes to investigating the short-term and long-term effects of GPR on FDI in Vietnam. Data used in this study are yearly geopolitical risk index, FDI and other control variables covering the period from 1986 to 2021. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, the empirical results confirm that the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) has a significantly negative effect on FDI in Vietnam in the long-term. Specifically, in the long-term, one percent increase in GPR Index is associated with 5.7983 percent decrease in Vietnam’s FDI. In addition, the results derived from the ARDL model indicate that in the short-term, the GPR has a significantly positive effect on the FDI for the 1-year lag, meaning that an increase in GPR Index lead to an increase in the FDI. Moreover, the results derived from the error correction model (ECM) indicate that 42.89% of the disequilibria from the previous year are converged and corrected back to the long-run equilibrium in the current year. Based on the findings, some policy implications are drawn for policymakers to mitigate the negative effects of GPR on FDI.

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