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Kỷ yếu hội nghị quốc tế 2014
Số tạp chí (2014) Trang: 75-91
Tạp chí: International Conference on Development and Cooperation of the Mekong Region, Seoul, Korea, December 4-5, 2014
Liên kết:

Climate change in the worldwide has become one of the "hot issues" among scientists and policy makers in the pass years. The abnormal weather phenomena combined with the natural disasters seem to appear clearly more and more in the last decade.  Climate change will affect the seasonal precipitation distribution, water sources as well as the number and frequency of extreme natural disasters. The human livelihood condition in the Delta is sensitive and could be threatened by changing climate and hydrological regime.

This research paper presents the impacts of climate change to the rice production in the Mekong Delta, with a case study in Can Tho City, as a biggest city in the middle of the Mekong Delta. The climate change trends in Can Tho was projected by using last 30-year meteorological data and downscaling future climate by using SDSM model following CO2 emission scenario A2 and B2 of IPCC to a near future (2020s), a middle future (2050s)  and a far future 2070s. By applying DSSAT model for establishing the rice yields in Can Tho in the present and in the future under climate change scenarios A2 and B2, it is found that rice is likely to lose the yields up to around 13% in the study region for both wet season and dry season. The yield losses are likely to face more as per A2-2080 scenario. The research has recommend difference measures as water management, fertilization, rice field care and new rice varieties introduction that may be the strategies for rice cultivation adaptation. The paper also provides some recommendation on climate change adaption for the solutions strategically to the food security of the nation.

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