The objective of chapter 10 is to present how computational models can be used to represent and understand the interactions between adaptation strategies adopted at different spatial and social scales in several climatic scenarios. These models are variations of a basic model called LUCAS (for Land Use Change for Adaptation Strategies), a spatially explicit agent-based model designed as a combination of social, economic, and environmental dynamics with individual land use change decisions. LUCAS simulates the complex interactions between individual and collective strategies, and their combined and cumulative effects on land use over time. Given a set of assumptions, parameters and scenarios, it provides a picture of land use in the Mekong Delta in 2030, with a vision through to 2050. We show that being able to use a model to consider adaptation efforts at the individual level and proposed strategies at the regional level simultaneously enables a very fine evaluation of the effectiveness of the latter, but also that this approach supports the subsequent integration of more specialized models (rice yields, salt and sediment transport, demographic evolution, groundwater dynamics, etc.). Although kept simple for the purposes of this chapter, virtual experiments based on models like LUCAS have the potential to change the way adaptation planning is conducted in the future.
Tạp chí khoa học Trường Đại học Cần Thơ
Lầu 4, Nhà Điều Hành, Khu II, đường 3/2, P. Xuân Khánh, Q. Ninh Kiều, TP. Cần Thơ
Điện thoại: (0292) 3 872 157; Email: tapchidhct@ctu.edu.vn
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