ARTICLE INFO

ABSTRACT

Received date: 08/08/2015

Accepted date: 19/02/2016

A stochastic model for daily clearness index sequence in Can Tho city has been proposed. This model based on a pair of stochastic processes, being called the state process and the observation process. The random dynamic of meteorological regimes in random medium was modellized by the state process, a hidden homogeneous Markov chain. The observation process, which represents the daily clearness index sequences, was formed by a real value function whose values are corrupted by Gaussian noise. Parameters of the model were estimated from the real data using Maximum Likelihood estimation via Expectation Maximization algorithm. The simulated data were used to estimate the experimental distribution of daily clearness index sequences.

KEYWORDS

Hidden Markov model, maximum likelihood estimation, expectation maximization algorithm, filter, clear index, solar radiation